The best way to predict the future is to create it:

  • ”…Experienced entrepreneurs seem to be more likely to use “effectual reasoning,” wherein they start with a given set of means—their personal strengths and the resources they already have at hand—rather than a predetermined goal, and then allow opportunities to emerge to which they can react. In contrast, non-entrepreneurial executives tend to use causal reasoning, in which they set a goal and then seek the best ways to achieve it. For more details, see Sarasvathy (2008). …”

  • ”…By allowing estimates of affordable loss to drive her decisions about which venture she starts, the effectuator reduces her dependence on predictions. To calculate expected returns, we have to estimate future sales and possible risks that constitute our cost of capital, and then raise enough money to make the venture happen. To calculate affordable loss, all we need to know is our current financial condition and a psychological estimate of our commitment in terms of the worst-case scenario. This is not only a non-predictive mode of estimation, it also is a way to nullify the role of uncertainty in early-stage funding decisions. …”

This grew up into the field of effectuation

Joel Solymosi @joelsolymosi